The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Mexico’s economy will experience moderate growth in the coming years, with the gross domestic product (GDP) expected to increase by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. This forecast is buoyed by a continuation of export growth and stabilizing investment, though uncertainties related to trade may hinder economic activity.
Mexico’s economic outlook has been bolstered by its expanding exports of computers and electronic components, driven in part by strong demand from the United States for data center infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The country has leveraged its manufacturing capacity and established North American supply chains to enhance its role as a key supplier of technology products.
Despite these positive indicators, the IMF has highlighted potential risks, particularly concerning the renewal of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). This lingering uncertainty poses a challenge to sustained economic growth. Nonetheless, the IMF notes that Mexico’s macroeconomic conditions remain broadly stable.
Inflation in Mexico is projected to reach 3.8% by the end of 2026, slightly above the Bank of Mexico’s target of 3%. While this presents some pressure on the economy, the IMF anticipates that external demand will continue to support Mexico’s economic trajectory.